Calculating your odds

Q

quitecontrary1977

New member
All the articles I have ever read about calculating how long it will take you to win just say that it depends on the number of entries, your luck, etc. This is true, of course, but I need "proof" that it will happen. Math is not my strong suit so I might need some help on this, but here goes. Grab your calculator. If we are entering a sweepstakes that allows one entry, and the contest receives 100, 000, our chances are 1 in 100,000. How long/many will we have to enter before we are likely to win. Let's say we enter 40 of these identical sweepstakes a day. That means it will be 2,500 days before our number is up, right? Isn't that almost 7 years? Does this sound accurate? I mean, I know that you could actually win your first sweeps ever entered or it may take twice as long, but if I knew that if I entered for around 7 years I would be practically guaranteed a big win, I would do so diligently. Anyway, somebody check my calculations on this, because math is not my friend.
 
The odds for each sweep is independent of the other sweeps. In your example above, the odds for each of the 40 sweeps is 1 in 100,00. Change the total number of entries and you'll change the odds.

A Daily for 30 days with 100,000 entrants, but each entrant only enters once. The odds are 1 in 100,000

A Daily for 30 days with 100,000 entrants & each entrant enters 30 times. 30 x 100,000 = 3,000,000 total entries. Each person has 30 entries or 1 in 100,000. The odds are the same as in the first example

Some people will only enter once, or a few times. This will reduce the total number of entries and reduce their odds while making your slightly better, if you took advantage of all 30 of your entry opportunities.

Sweeps are like the lottery, each has it's own independent odds. Some people enter for years and never win while newspapers report others who win multiple times, occasionally in a matter of months.

Good luck.

:)
 
Having hit back to back Royal Flushes on video poker here in Las Vegas when the odds say 1:40,000 hands, I just enter & forget it!

Plus, number dyslexic, lol!!!
 
My odds have been the best when I just enter and forget it, while keeping a positive attitude. There may be some contests with those odds, but a lot of the sweeps I've seen have had much less entries. So maybe 7 years for a super HUGE win? Just stay optimistic =)
 
amyshulk said:
Having hit back to back Royal Flushes on video poker here in Las Vegas when the odds say 1:40,000 hands, I just enter & forget it!

Plus, number dyslexic, lol!!!
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Yup! Enter 'em and forget 'em.

You just reminded me of the infinite monkey theorem – the idea that an infinite number of monkeys, typing on typewriters for an infinite amount of time, will eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare.

Given enough time, anything is possible. Sometimes it just happens faster, like your back to back wins, or someone winning a Lottery 3 times in 1 month - - Lucky couple wins lottery 3 times in one month | New York Post
 
And you reminded me that I hit 3 royals that night, during Bingo intermission, then hit the Bingo coverall while while DH couldn't hit the broad side of the barn! It was funny because he would usually carry me when we'd go out, lol!!!
 
amyshulk said:
And you reminded me that I hit 3 royals that night, during Bingo intermission, then hit the Bingo coverall while while DH couldn't hit the broad side of the barn! It was funny because he would usually carry me when we'd go out, lol!!!
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I don't buy Lottery Tickets, nor do I gamble - 'cept once. Years ago, I went on a weekend ski trip package to Heavenly Valley (Reno, Nev.) through a ski club. To give you an idea how long ago, we flew there in a 32 passenger propeller driven Douglas Aircraft DC3. I thought we were going to crash from the turbulence over the Sierras.

My only other flight experience was as "freight" while in the Army (boot camp). The flight crew was being tested on insertions and evacuations and needed bodies so we were "volunteered". We flew in one of the old 50's Banana Helicopters. They're shaped like a banana and both rotors are the same size. Those things vibrate, shake, rattle & roll and are noisey beyond belief. You think you're going to fall out of the sky at any second.

Anyhow, part of the ski package included a chit for some free tokens to a local Casino I think it was $10 + 2 double your bet tokens.

I hadn't a clue what I was doing (still don't), as I'd never gambled . I looked at the different games and a friend suggested that I try the Pass Line on the Craps Table. I won and lost till I had a streak where I won and had about $35 in chips. I bet them all, along with one of the double your bet chips & won. I kept on playing till I had over $80 in chips. I took $50 & put them in my pocket and played with the rest till I lost 'em all.

I cashed out the $50, went back to the Hotel and that's the extent of my gambling experience.
 
I like sweeps because you are only gambling with your free time. I went to a casino on my birthday once and won $600 on a slot machine. That drew me in. Within 3 months, I lost $10,000. No joke. Luckily, that was when I was single and childless so I was the only one to feel the consequences. Now, I won't spend a dime on trying to win unless it's a raffle at my kid's school or something like that! I wish I had researched my odds of beating the casino, maybe I would have invested my money in low risk stock investments instead!
 
Yes, you get some of the thrill with very little risk. Anyway I agree with your calculations, and I figure it about the same way. However....Curmudgeon is technically right, but I choose to ignore that. And of course, the good prizes are going to have a lot more than 100,000 entries.
 
goldenpaso said:
Yes, you get some of the thrill with very little risk. Anyway I agree with your calculations, and I figure it about the same way. However....Curmudgeon is technically right, but I choose to ignore that. And of course, the good prizes are going to have a lot more than 100,000 entries.
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Yup!

The 2012 HGTV Dream Home sweep had over 81 Million entries. How long due they run - 45
days? So that's 45 chances out of 81,000,000 - not good odds.

:)
 
I also looked into these calculations when I first started sweeping to see what I was getting myself into. I found this website that explains another way to figure out your question: How to Calculate the Odds of Winning a Raffle | eHow I ran your numbers and think your calculation is correct. I mostly try to win trips. I have heard a few people on this site say they can average winning about a trip a year, and that is where I am at. For me it is a hobby that is fun and worth the effort.
 
I am in it for the trips, too, melk. Travel is my favorite hobby. I do a lot of weekend trips, but if I want to go globe-trotting, I will have to win my way around the world. So I was trying to calculate how many years before I can expect to hit a pay off.
 
I started thinking about the odds of winning with the metaphor of M&Ms. My entry/entries are green and everyone else's are red candies. If a person closed their eyes and picked a candy, what are the chances he/ she would grab the green out of hundreds of thousands of reds, maybe a mountain of red ones? I would have to enter thousands upon thousands of sweepstakes before my little green M&M might be chosen. I can't even find that many sweepstakes to enter a year! (Clearly, I'm not entering and forgetting! lol. I don't do anything without thinking about it. I'm always trying to crack the code for everything.) And to be honest, thinking about people who claim to win a plethora of huge prizes a year makes me scratch my head. They are either extremely diligent and finding sweepstakes no one else has or flat out cheating and not getting caught. I'm not hating, I just want in on the secret sweepers society!!!!
 
Why do some assume because they haven't yet won, that the *only* way to win requires skullduggery? Or that those posting are the *only* ones who win often and/or big?

Too often, I see people {who see posts of many/huge wins} thoughtlessly assume the worst and accuse fellow sweepers of cheating & I'm sure that has an impact on who chooses to post.

The reality is that we {sweepers} don't have any control over this process, beyond entering/choosing to enter as often as allowed, and that there are really no *secrets* beyond following the rules!
 
Woops. I'm not trying to tick anybody off. I have mad respect for how you are always greeting, explaining, and comforting on the message board! You are clearly very moral and wholesome. Not questioning that! But, most of us sweepers are gamblers and dreamers and get rich-quickers at heart. Otherwise, we'd be getting our doctorates while working working 60 hours a week and investing our earnings in high interest accounts. (And let's face it- most of us aren't.) Suggesting some of us sweepers could be bending the rules a bit in order to win isn't exactly an outlandish statement. Now, do I think most sweepers are cheaters? Unless you're a brilliant hacker I don't think it's possible to do so! Most sweepers play it straight and only enter for themselves. What I know a very small minority of frequent winners do - and this isn't technically cheating- is enter on behalf of their spouses, mom, dad, adult children, or anyone who is cool with splitting the prize or giving them the prize outright. I thought this practice was common knowledge. I don't do it because I don't have time, for one, and I am a stickler for the rules. But I am very close to someone who did this for a couple of years and won very wonderful things (many of which she shared with me.) But eventually she got caught when someone checked ISBN numbers on entries and was disqualified for a prize she won. She just got embarrassed and stopped sweeping all together. But I guess that's what I was hinting at in my previous post- that maybe more people are doing this than I thought.

Anyway, it's a moot point since I don't intend to do anything other than practice strict adherence to the rules. Just kind of wondering if you guys knew people who had done this kind of thing.
 
I didn't think you meant me in particular, I'm just *really* frustrated with society as a whole jumping to conclusions and assuming the worst of others based on the actions of a few.

Are there some who enter friends/family members? Sure, Kids sweeps require an adult submit on behalf of a minor & for other promos, they have been told {by eprize} that as long as there is a real person, with a real email addy & home address attached to an entry, they do not care who submitted the entry. The HGTV house is famous for a winner stating his wife entered him!

There are also other sponsors/JA's that do care - Coke Sweepstakes for one. I know there are others, but they are usually very clear in the rules that entry is limited to perhh.

So, it all comes down to the rules & reasonable interpretation. That is not cheating.

Cheating is what got the DELF {DELL ELF} killed - people made up addys & entered multiple times to get the good coupon offer & DELL figured it out and decided not to bother.

Cheating is also not condoned at SA, and the majority of sweepers are like you & I - we enter w/in the rules for a shot at winning.

IMO, the problem arises when people see the outliers - Zebras, if you will {ie; hear hoofbeats, think Horse, not Zebra} - and assume *all* members of a group {sweepers in this case} are operating in bad faith. Perhaps I am naive, but I don't believe the minority "speaks" for the majority.
 
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